Dangerous Suburbs

It's always nice to have confirmation of my rants. In my last post I talked about how there is a greater perception of danger in cities, but the reality is that suburbs are actually more dangerous. I got to this point through reasoning through my points, but I didn't do a study or look for statistics. Well, here is the statistic: You’re 20 percent more likely to die in the suburbs from accidental deaths. (And by accidental deaths, we are referring to cars.) Here's the article. It's largely about how our land use patterns contribute to many chronic health problems. Sounds like a future post to me.....

Fear of the City

The myth: "Cities are dangerous. Suburbs are safe." This is such a common myth and I have no idea why it exists. I can only point my finger to mass media's focus on spectacle to an increasingly anesthetized audience. It's so chilling and mind numbing in its simplicity. The media focuses on gang violence, guns in schools, rape, and other graphic and disturbingly violent crimes. Do these crimes happen more frequently in cities? Well, to be honest, yes. However, where will I be safer: a city or a suburb? The answer is a city. There are three factors that explain why: (1) the density of crime, (2) the propensity of crime and (3) the type of crime.

Density of Crime
This is going to sound crazy but.... there's more crime in the city because there is a higher density of people in the city. Instead of thinking about the sheer number of crimes, think about the crimes per capita. It's surprising how the city-to-suburb field levels out. Another aspect of this is there is greater social friction in cities. People in cities knock elbows with one another, while people in the suburbs have plenty of elbow room. There is a greater chance for interaction, and thereby a greater chance for conflict. However, there is also a greater (I would argue MUCH greater) chance for serendipity to occur when interacting with someone.

Propensity of Crime
This aspect gets into the types of crimes found in a city. The annual list of Safest / Most Dangerous Cities is complied by looking at six types of crime:

1. Murder
2. Rape
3. Robbery
4. Aggravated assault
5. Burglary
6. Motor vehicle theft

As uncomfortable as this is to admit, studies find that murder, rape, and aggravated assault mostly happen between people who know one another. Yes, there is the rare case of the rapist attacking a random person in a park, or of a stranger getting held at gun point (these stories make wonderful fodder for sensationalist media, by the way). However, most often these situations happen between people who know one another. And yes, they happen frequently in impoverished (urban) communities where role models and supportive families are few and far between.

That leaves us with robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Now these can happen to anyone. But, these are all easy to avoid if people take precautions. Most of these precautions simply involve using common sense and trusting your instincts.

Type of Crime
In my mind, this is the clincher. Yes, we can worry about the six crimes above from happening to us, but do you know what is the biggest cause of accidental deaths? CARS. And it has been for years. One person is killed every five minutes from a car accident. So really, don't live in fear of someone coming along and shooting or raping you. You should live in fear of your car. Bringing this back to the urban / suburban divide... where do people drive more? The suburbs. Where do people taking longer driving trips? The suburbs. No matter what way you cut it, if you're in the suburbs, chances are you'll be driving a heck of a lot more than your urban counterparts. Think about that next time your turn the ignition!

Conclusion
The "Cities are dangerous. Suburbs are safe." myht is completely false. The city is actually safer than the suburbs. Per capita, crime rates are not much different between the two. Urban crimes do not affect most people who use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. And really, the level of danger in your life ultimately comes down to how much you drive.